Fitch Affirms Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia at 'BBB'/'AAA(idn)'; Outlook Stable

(Fitch Ratings - Singapore/Jakarta - 12 Feb 2026)--Fitch Ratings has affirmed PT Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia (Persero)'s Long-Term Foreign- and Local-Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) at 'BBB' and Short-Term Foreign-Currency IDR at 'F2'. Concurrently, Fitch Ratings Indonesia has affirmed the National Long-Term Rating at 'AAA(idn)'. The Outlook on the long-term ratings is Stable.

The affirmation reflects Fitch's unchanged assessment of the government support score for the entity, also known as Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund (IIGF) under our Government-Related Entities (GREs) Rating Criteria. Fitch classifies the entity as a GRE that is credit-linked to the Indonesian sovereign (BBB/Stable), fully owned through the Ministry of Finance (MoF). IIGF's ratings are solely driven by its GRE support score, reflecting our view of the government's 'Virtually Certain' responsibility and incentive to provide extraordinary support, if needed, resulting in the equalisation of its ratings to those of the Indonesian sovereign.

'AAA' National Long-Term Ratings denote the highest rating assigned by the agency in its National Rating scale for that country. This rating is assigned to issuers or obligations with the lowest expectation of default risk relative to all other issuers or obligations in the same country or monetary union.

KEY RATING DRIVERS

Support Score Assessment 'Virtually certain'

We believe extraordinary support from the Indonesian government would be virtually certain in case of need, reflecting a support score of 45 out of a maximum 60 under our GRE criteria. This reflects our assessment of responsibility and incentive to support factors.

Responsibility to Support

Decision Making and Oversight 'Very Strong'

IIGF's strategic role as one of the Indonesian government's fiscal tools is reinforced by tight government oversight and operational influence. The central government, through the MoF, owns 100% of the entity's shares and, under a two-tier governance structure, appoints all members of the executive board of directors and supervisory board of commissioners by ministerial decree. All commissioners are MoF officials. Any changes to either board require MoF approval, which gives the government extensive control over IIGF's operations, strategy and budget.

Precedents of Support 'Strong'

IIGF benefits from a strong record of government support, reinforcing its operational capacity as the government's sole guarantee-issuance entity. IIGF's guarantee capacity is linked to its equity and depends on adequate capital injections. The government has injected IDR10.7 trillion from its establishment in 2009 to end-December 2025, allowing the entity to guarantee up to IDR191.6 trillion, based on equity of IDR16.0 trillion, excluding the IDR1.6 trillion equity injection specifically for a national economic recovery programme during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Incentives to Support

Preservation of Government Policy Role 'Strong'

IIGF is the government's only fund for processing, appraising and structuring sovereign guarantees for infrastructure projects proposed by contracting agencies, including ministries, regional governments and state-owned enterprises. IIGF's guarantees backstop agencies' contractual obligations. A default could significantly affect project continuity. IIGF has no substitutes, which means a default could disrupt guarantee services, delay key infrastructure projects and weaken investor confidence in government-backed initiatives, increasing risks to Indonesia's growth and development objectives.

Contagion Risk 'Very Strong'

The assessment reflects our view that IIGF is a core government entity with high reputational sensitivity as a government-sponsored infrastructure guarantor. As a fiscal tool, IIGF enables the government to ring-fence contingent liabilities and buffer budget shocks. An IIGF default could undermine investor confidence in Indonesia's public-private partnership (PPP) framework and sovereign-linked financing channels, potentially impairing market access for other GREs and weakening confidence in government support.

Fitch's assessment of the entity's contagion risk reflects our view of IIGF as a reference issuer, despite its low debt levels, given its two-step World Bank loan and our consideration of its guarantee capacity.

Financial Performance

IIGF's revenue continues to be driven mainly by interest income from its investments and guarantees, which accounted for 84% and 13%, respectively, of total revenue in 9M25. Revenue rose 1% yoy in 9M25, while we estimate full-year revenue fell 1% yoy. The entity's investment income is generated from investments in time deposits and fixed income mostly sourced from the government's capital injection. IIGF's profit margin rose to 67% in 9M25 from 65% in 9M24 and 63% in 2024.

Additional project guarantees signed in 2025 were dominated by the electricity sector, accounting for four out of six additional projects, signifying the enforcement of the MoF's regulation in 2025 that set out the general provisions and procedures for government guarantees and risk-sharing related to renewable energy and energy-transition financing. IIGF's gearing ratio increased slightly to 6.5x in 2025 from 6.1x in 2024, driven by the IDR8.7 trillion increase in effective guarantee exposure for IIGF-backed projects, but the entity still has room for growth with a maximum threshold of 12x.

Short-Term Ratings

The Short-Term IDR is equalised with the sovereign's at 'F2', in line with the equalisation of IIGF's Long-Term IDR with that of the sovereign.

National Ratings

IIGF's National Long-Term Rating is derived from its Long-Term Local-Currency IDR of 'BBB' and reflects our expectation of the lowest credit risk relative to peers rated on the same national rating scale.

Peer Analysis

Our rating assessment is based on a support score of 45 points out of 60 under our GRE criteria, leading to an equalisation with the sovereign. We believe that government support for the entity would be 'Virtually Certain', if needed. Fitch does not assign a Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) to IIGF and the ratings are based solely on the support score.

Fitch compares IIGF against the major financial holding GREs in Indonesia, PT Sarana Multi Infrastructure (Persero) (AAA(idn)/Stable), PT Indonesia Infrastructure Finance (AAA(idn)/Stable) and PT Sarana Multigriya Finansial (Persero) (AAA(idn)/Stable), as well as Indian Railway Finance Corporation Limited (BBB-/Stable) and Housing and Urban Development Corporation Limited (BBB-/Stable), two Indian GREs in the financing sector. Fitch does not assign SCPs to these peers and their ratings are based solely on our expectation of extraordinary support from their respective government sponsors. Their ratings are credit-linked and equalised with their respective sovereign ratings or are at the highest level on the national rating scale.

Issuer Profile

IIGF is the only state-owned enterprise in Indonesia mandated to provide government guarantees, mainly for PPP infrastructure projects that support national objectives. It is one of the government's few fiscal tools and is wholly owned through the MoF.

Rating Sensitivities

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade

- A downgrade of the Indonesian sovereign rating would lead to similar rating action on IIGF's international ratings.

- Deterioration in the overall support score to less than 45 points would lead to negative rating action.

Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade

An upgrade of the Indonesian sovereign rating would lead to similar rating action on IIGF's international ratings. However, this would not lead to an upgrade in IIGF's national rating, as it is already at the highest level on Fitch's national scale.

Criteria Variation

A variation to the Government-Related Entities Rating Criteria was applied to the "Issuers with no SCPs" provision, under which Fitch determined that assigning an SCP to IIGF is unnecessary for the analysis, even though the specific conditions to consider an SCP "not meaningful" defined in the criteria were not strictly met.

Government support, underpinned by a clear policy mandate, is assessed as 'Virtually Certain'. Along with our assessment that the entity is not in financial distress (where default is a real possibility) and that the supporting government would have ample access to the cash or assets of the GRE so that the rating would be constrained by that of the Indonesian government, we conclude there is no risk that the IDR would differ if an SCP were assigned, nor that an assessment of SCP would enhance the analysis at this stage.

ESG Considerations

Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores for IIGF.

In cases where Fitch does not provide ESG relevance scores in connection with the credit rating of a transaction, programme, instrument or issuer, Fitch will disclose any ESG factor that is a key rating driver in the key rating drivers section of the relevant rating action commentary. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit https://www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products

Public Ratings with Credit Linkage to other ratings

IIGF is credit-linked to the Indonesian sovereign.

Sources of Information

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria

References for Substantially Material Source Cited as Key Driver Rating

The principal sources of information used in the analysis are described in the Applicable Criteria. (ends)