Global copper market seen in surplus through 2027, ICSG says
Monday, April 27 2026 - 07:09 AM WIB
By Romel S. Gurky
The global copper market is expected to remain in surplus through 2027 as supply growth outpaces demand, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG).
In its latest forecast, the group said refined copper supply is projected to exceed demand by about 96,000 tonnes in 2026 and widen to a surplus of 377,000 tonnes in 2027.
The outlook marks a shift from earlier projections of a deficit, reflecting weaker-than-expected demand growth and increased secondary production.
Global copper mine production is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2026, revised down from earlier estimates due to lower output expectations in key producers such as Chile, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia. Production at major mines including Grasberg and Kamoa remains constrained following operational disruptions in 2025.
Growth is expected to be supported by ramp-ups at projects such as Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia and Malmyz in Russia, as well as expansions in China and Uzbekistan. A stronger increase of 2.3% is projected for 2027, driven by improved output in Chile and Zambia and recovery in Indonesia and the DRC.
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Refined copper production is forecast to rise modestly by 0.4% in 2026, as limited availability of concentrates constrains output despite new capacity additions. Growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in 2027 as supply conditions improve and expansion of secondary production continues.
On the demand side, global refined copper usage is projected to increase by 1.6% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. The growth outlook has been revised down due to uncertainty linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their impact on global economic activity and trade flows.
Asia is expected to remain the main driver of demand growth, supported by sectors such as energy transition, urbanization and digital infrastructure, including data centers. However, demand in other regions, particularly Europe and Japan, is expected to remain subdued.
ICSG noted that market balances could still vary depending on external factors, including geopolitical developments and shifts in supply and demand dynamics.
The group said its projections are subject to uncertainty, particularly given recent volatility in global markets and the potential for disruptions affecting both production and consumption.
Editing by Alexander Ginting