Hormuz shipping halts after renewed US-Iran conflict, Brent nears $79, Rystad says

By Romel S. Gurky

Commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively stopped following renewed military exchanges between the United States and Iran, pushing Brent crude prices close to US$79 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions, according to Rystad Energy.

The consultancy said the recent attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz triggered a new round of US retaliatory strikes, prompting US President Donald Trump to declare the ceasefire with Iran over.

Rystad Energy Head of Geopolitical Analysis Jorge Leon said the halt in tanker movements reflects heightened security concerns rather than official political statements.

"Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has essentially stopped, which tells you more about risk perception right now than any statement from Washington or Tehran," Leon said.

He added that Brent crude's rise to its highest level since June 19 shows that the market is increasingly pricing in renewed conflict after the collapse of the ceasefire.

"The real test comes after July 9, once the mourning period ends and both sides show whether there is still an appetite for a diplomatic off ramp," he said.

According to Rystad, the latest military escalation has significantly weakened expectations that the current 60 day truce could evolve into a lasting peace agreement, while raising the possibility that diplomatic negotiations could stall.

Oil markets responded quickly, with Brent crude climbing to nearly US$79 per barrel as traders factored in higher geopolitical risks surrounding one of the world's most important oil transit routes.

The consultancy said that even without prolonged physical supply disruptions, concerns over vessel safety, insurance costs, shipping delays and the risk of further military action are likely to keep oil market volatility elevated.

Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz has already dropped sharply, with vessel movements falling from around 20 ships on July 6 to 11 the following day. As of Tuesday, Rystad said traffic appeared to have stopped completely.

The consultancy warned that geopolitical risk premiums could increase further after the mourning period for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ends on July 9, particularly if both sides adopt a more confrontational stance.

Rystad also noted that any further disruption could have a greater impact on energy markets because it coincides with the Northern Hemisphere summer, when seasonal demand for road transport fuels and aviation fuel is typically at its highest.

Editing by Alexander Ginting