IATA warns one-third of announced SAF projects may not materialize by 2030

By Romel S. Gurky

Around one-third of the sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production capacity announced globally is unlikely to be developed by 2030 because of insufficient policy support, limited financing and the slow commercialization of emerging production technologies, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

In its latest Chart of the Week, IATA said nearly 200 SAF projects have been announced worldwide, representing up to 30 million tonnes of annual production capacity by 2030. However, it expects only about 60% of the announced capacity to materialize, with actual output reaching around 20 million tonnes by the end of the decade.

Only about 35% of the announced capacity is currently operational or under construction, while many projects remain at an early development stage and face risks of delay or cancellation.

IATA said inadequate policy support and restricted access to funding remain major obstacles to project development. It also noted that hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), currently the only commercially mature SAF production pathway capable of near-term scale-up, is not being fully utilized.

Meanwhile, newer production pathways, including Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and gasification Fischer-Tropsch (GFT), have yet to achieve commercial maturity. Interest is increasingly focused on Power-to-Liquid (PtL) technology, although IATA said the pathway remains at an early stage and is unlikely to be deployed at commercial scale before around 2040. If current trends continue, existing global SAF production targets are unlikely to be achieved.

Regionally, the Americas are expected to account for about 40% of global SAF production capacity by 2030, led primarily by projects in the United States. Europe, North Asia and Asia-Pacific are projected to contribute a combined 12 million tonnes, while Africa and the Middle East are expected to lag despite abundant feedstock resources. Asia-Pacific currently has the region's most advanced project pipeline, with more than 40% of its announced capacity already operational.

IATA said converting announced projects into operating facilities will require predictable policy frameworks, coordinated energy system development and continued support for commercially viable production technologies to accelerate aviation's emissions reduction efforts.

Editing by Alexander Ginting