IEA sees firm tin outlook as Indonesia, Myanmar supply constraints persist

By Adianto P. Simamora

Global tin prices are expected to remain above historical levels despite improving refined supply, supported by sustained demand from semiconductors, artificial intelligence and clean energy technologies, while supply constraints in Indonesia and Myanmar continue to shape the market, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said.

In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the IEA said tin prices have risen steadily over the past several years as strong demand coincided with supply disruptions in major producing countries. In Indonesia, disruptions were linked to mining permit issues and government action against illegal mining.

Although refined tin production has recovered from disruptions experienced in 2025 and inventories have increased in recent months, the agency said underlying demand is expected to keep prices elevated.

The IEA's price index showed London Metal Exchange cash prices for 99.85% tin nearly doubled between January 2024 and early 2026.

More than half of global tin consumption is used as solder for connecting circuit boards, making demand closely linked to electronics and semiconductor production. The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure has further increased semiconductor demand, while consumption is also rising in electric vehicles and solar photovoltaic systems, where tin is used in soldering and electrical connections.

The report highlighted Indonesia's strategic role in the market, noting the country accounts for 21% of global tin mine production, making it the world's second largest producer after China, which holds a 24% share. Peru ranks third with 11%.

While Indonesia is a major mining producer, China dominates downstream processing, accounting for about 50% of global refined tin supply, according to the IEA.

Editing by Alexander Ginting