IEA sees Indonesia's battery-grade graphite output tripling by 2030

By Adianto Simamora

Indonesia's refined battery-grade graphite production is projected to nearly triple by 2030, driven by new synthetic graphite capacity, although China is expected to remain the dominant global supplier, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In its Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, the IEA projected Indonesia's refined battery-grade graphite output to increase to 93,000 tonnes in 2030 from 32,000 tonnes in 2025. Production is forecast to rise further to 103,000 tonnes by 2040 under the agency's base case scenario.

The report showed Indonesia had no recorded battery-grade graphite production in 2021, highlighting the country's emergence as a new processor of battery materials.

The IEA said Indonesia's contribution to global supply growth will come from synthetic graphite production rather than natural graphite mining, with the country not listed among major producers of mined natural graphite.

Global refined battery-grade graphite supply is forecast to increase from 2.27 million tonnes in 2025 to 3.36 million tonnes in 2030 and 4.47 million tonnes in 2040.

Despite new capacity in Indonesia and other countries, China is expected to retain its dominant position. The IEA projects China's battery-grade graphite production will rise from 2.14 million tonnes in 2025 to 3.03 million tonnes in 2030 and 4.04 million tonnes in 2040.

China accounted for about 94% of global battery-grade graphite supply in 2025, with its share projected to decline only slightly to 91% by 2035 as new production comes online elsewhere.

The IEA said global graphite demand increased about 6% in 2025, driven primarily by the battery sector, where demand grew more than 14% on continued expansion of electric vehicle and stationary energy storage markets.

Editing by Alexander Ginting