India thermal coal imports extend decline in Jan-April

India's non-coking coal imports fell 7.4% year on year to 51.34 million tonnes in January-April 2026, according to BigMint data, as buyers continued favouring domestic supply amid elevated seaborne prices and rising renewable energy generation.

Imports declined 11% year on year in April, although they edged up 4% month on month to a seven-month high of 14.2 million tonnes. The increase was mainly driven by delayed arrivals of previously booked cargoes and seasonal restocking ahead of peak summer power demand.

However, high international coal prices, elevated freight costs and ample domestic availability continued to discourage aggressive import buying.

Imports had also fallen 6% in calendar year 2025, reflecting structurally weaker demand for imported coal as domestic supply improved.

Indonesian imports fall 10%

Imports of Indonesian non-coking coal dropped 10% year on year to 30 million tonnes during January-April, indicating subdued demand from the power sector despite concerns over extreme summer temperatures and a potentially weaker monsoon linked to an emerging El Nino event.

Although the Indian government directed imported coal-fired power plants to operate at full capacity during April-June to strengthen energy security, the policy has yet to significantly boost imports.

At the same time, Indonesian coal prices continued rising on concerns over tighter supply stemming from lower production quotas and higher freight rates linked to the US-Iran conflict. Prices for 4,200 GAR coal averaged $62.5 per tonne CNF Vizag in January and $64.5 in February before climbing sharply to $72.6 in March and $74.75 in April.

Reports indicate Indonesia has approved production work plans covering around 580 million tonnes, significantly below the country's 790 million tonnes output in 2025. Uncertainty surrounding production approvals and domestic sales obligations also made exporters reluctant to offer cargoes.

Renewable energy growth caps imports

India's power consumption rose 2.6% year on year to 578 billion units in January-April 2026. While overall generation also increased, growth was led primarily by non-fossil fuel sources.

According to data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), power generation in January-March rose 3% year on year to 464 billion units, while coal- and lignite-based generation slipped 1%. In contrast, solar generation surged 24% and wind output rose 11%.

In April, overall power generation increased 5.3% year on year, but coal-based output rose only 2.4%, while renewable generation jumped 22%.

Read also : India coal imports fall 8.5% in February on high stockpiles, firm prices

Domestic supply remains sufficient

Domestic coal production declined 1.6% year on year during January-April, while dispatches fell 1.2%. Despite the decline, domestic availability remained sufficient and consumers continued favouring local coal due to competitive pricing.

Coal stocks at Indian power plants fell 9% month on month to 53.71 million tonnes in April, but inventories in pithead regions remained comfortable at 120%-130% of normative levels.

Domestic coal accounted for 95.3% of thermal power plant receipts and 94% of consumption in April. Imported coal remained marginal, accounting for 3.35 million tonnes of receipts and 4.58 million tonnes of consumption.

South African, US imports mixed

South African coal imports rose 4% year on year to 12.37 million tonnes in January-April, supported by a 9% increase in sponge iron production. However, weaker sponge iron prices encouraged some producers to switch to domestic coal.

April imports from South Africa fell 8.4% month on month and 2.1% year on year to 3.3 million tonnes as higher FOB prices at Richards Bay, rising freight costs and geopolitical tensions increased landed costs in India.

Although RB3 (4,800 NAR) prices later eased to an average of $74 per tonne FOB Richards Bay from $79, earlier booking slowdowns reduced cargo arrivals during April.

US thermal coal imports rose 10% year on year to 4.35 million tonnes in January-April, although April shipments declined 11%.

The increase reflected stronger demand from cement manufacturers seeking alternatives to costly petroleum coke. Higher petcoke prices and tighter availability encouraged greater use of imported high-calorific thermal coal, particularly from the US, alongside domestic blends.

Outlook

BigMint expects India's thermal coal imports to remain broadly stable in May despite seasonal support from summer power demand.

While electricity demand is likely to increase during April-June due to higher temperatures, elevated domestic coal inventories, improving local supply and continued renewable energy expansion are expected to limit any substantial rise in imports.

Persistently high international coal prices, especially for Indonesian and South African cargoes, are also likely to discourage aggressive spot buying by Indian utilities and industrial consumers.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak