Indonesia coal exports decline as domestic supply limits offset weak demand

By Romel S. Gurky

Indonesia's thermal coal prices have remained relatively resilient despite subdued demand from key buyers China and India, as lower export availability has offset downward pressure on prices, according to market intelligence firm BigMint.

BigMint said Chinese buyers have remained cautious as persistent rainfall has reduced electricity demand, while Indian buyers continue to rely on ample domestic coal supplies.

Under normal market conditions, weaker demand from the two largest importers would be expected to exert greater downward pressure on Indonesian coal prices, the firm said.

Instead, Indonesia's thermal coal exports have fallen to around 1 million tonnes per day, well below the 2025 average of 1.31 million tonnes per day.

According to BigMint, export availability has been constrained by domestic market obligations to state utility PLN and uncertainty surrounding approvals of second half 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) documents for mining companies.

The combination of lower exports and supply constraints has helped support Indonesian coal prices despite softer buying interest from overseas consumers, the firm said.

BigMint said the market remains focused on developments in domestic supply policies and RKAB approvals, which are expected to influence export volumes and price movements in the coming months.

Editing by Alexander Ginting