Indonesia holds largest PV module capacity in Southeast Asia, SMM says

By Dominikus

Indonesia has become the largest holder of photovoltaic module capacity in Southeast Asia, with about 27 GW of capacity, as global solar manufacturers adjust supply chains amid shifting trade barriers and technology upgrades, an analyst at Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) said at the Coal and Energy Transition Forum of the Indonesia Critical Minerals Conference 2026 in Jakarta on Friday.

Ryan Tey Tze Yang, PV Analyst at SMM, said Indonesia currently accounts for the largest PV module capacity in Southeast Asia, followed by Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and the Philippines.

He said the region’s PV manufacturing base was originally built largely for export markets, as several Southeast Asian countries had served as transit hubs for Chinese manufacturers shipping products to Europe and the United States.

However, trade measures have started to reshape the regional supply chain. Tey said the United States imposed anti-dumping and countervailing duty measures on Cambodia, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand from 2024, while new investigations were initiated in 2026 against Indonesia and Laos.

The shift has pushed manufacturers to look beyond the U.S. market, including to the Middle East, Brazil and other destinations, he said.

Tey said Southeast Asia’s overall PV manufacturing capacity is expected to undergo a clearance process this year, declining to about 75 GW, with capacity increasingly shifting toward more advanced technologies rather than older production lines.

He said Indonesia is likely to attract more foreign manufacturers through joint venture structures, as companies reassess their regional production footprint.

On the demand side, Tey said Southeast Asia’s new solar installations are expected to reach around 7 GW this year, mainly contributed by the Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia, with Indonesia also accounting for part of the regional market.

By 2030, newly added solar capacity in Southeast Asia could rise to around 13 GW, he said.

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Indonesia’s domestic market is also supported by the government’s 100 GW solar ambition, which has been repeatedly cited by speakers during the forum as a potential driver for local manufacturing, supply chain development and future module absorption.

Tey said global PV module prices increased in the first half of 2026 due to higher production costs, including wafers, silicon and silver, as well as the cancellation of China’s tax rebate for PV products.

Prices rose in the first quarter, partly due to tight demand, but later remained at high levels only briefly as global demand weakened and Chinese manufacturers faced shipment pressure, prompting efforts to lower prices to stimulate demand, he said.

He also pointed to a rapid technology shift in the global solar panel market. While PERC technology dominated the market two years ago, TOPCon now accounts for more than 70% and nearly 80% of the market, he said.

Higher efficiency technologies, including HJT and back contact modules, are expected to gain market share and could account for around 30% by 2030, he said.

Editing by Reiner Simanjuntak